US i3 Deliveries Begin!

i3's sitting at a port in the US awaiting vehicle carriers to take them to dealerships

BMW of North America issued a press release today confirming that US i3 deliveries have begun. Not such a surprise since as of yesterday dealers across the country began taking in i3's.

BMW of North America's CEO Ludwig Willisch said of the i3 launch: “Today marks a big day at BMW of North America – What started out as a dream for an innovative sustainable vehicle under the BMW i brand can now be found on streets across the U.S.”

There are currently hundreds of i3's in the US, either at the port, dealerships or en-route to the dealership. However only the BEV i3 is being released at the moment. The range extended version (REx) is still being held up at the port for what is assumed finalization of the EPA certifications. That is expected to be finished very soon and the REx vehicles can then begin shipping to dealers also. 
And so it begins...

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Strong US i3 Demand Expected, Says CEO Willisch

Predicting demand for electric vehicles has proven to be a difficult task. Both GM and Nissan had admit to not hitting their sales predictions when they first launched their respective electric vehicles. Tesla, on the other hand seems to have their sales constricted by battery supply issues and not by a lack of customer demand.

BMW has been very quiet with regard to talking about sales targets for the i3. It has been reported that BMW will have the ability to make 30,000 i3's per year and could possibly push that up to 40,000 if the demand warrants it. However that isn't right out of the gate. The first year of production will most certainly be much lower than 30,000 regardless of the demand.  Because everything about the i3 requires a completely new manufacturing process it's going to take a little while for BMW to work out any initial kinks in the assembly process. Plus, BMW can only make as many i3's as they get battery cells for. Yes BMW does assemble the battery pack in-house at their Landshut plant, but they do get the cells from a supplier (Samsung) and will be limited to what Samsung can supply.

The i3 battery pack consists of  8 modules, each consisting of 12 individual cells. Pictured above is one i3 module with an individual cell positioned in front.

Initial European orders have been very strong which is good for BMW and a good sign in general for the EV industry, but may squeeze i3 availability for the US market. BMW North American CEO Ludwig Willisch recently told the Automotive News that he believes BMW will sell every i3 allocated to US dealers and wouldn't comment on volume any more than saying  the US would get "more than a few thousand". In 2011, the first full year of US sales for the Volt and the LEAF, they sold 7,345 and 9,655 units respectively. The market for electric vehicles has matured a bit since then which is an advantage for the i3, but the i3 is also much more expensive than either the Volt or the LEAF so that will certainly be a sales-restricting factor in itself. Throw in the fact that we don't know how many i3's BMW can supply the US in the first year and it really is difficult to even guess how many will be sold in 2014. Maybe that's why Willisch and the others at BMW are reluctant to offer any real sales prediction other than to say "strong demand"; or perhaps it's because they watched Nissan and GM fall short and have to address their mistakes and eat a little crow. My guess is it's the latter.

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What's The Delay?

On July 22nd, tucked nicely at the end of a press release for the i3, were the words,“It will arrive in US showrooms in the second quarter of 2014.”

That means US i3 customers will have to wait a bit longer than expected. Although BMW has never made an official announcement on when US sales would begin, about four months ago BMW's North American president Ludwig Willisch told the Automotive News that the first batch of i3s arriving in the US would have the range extender option and would arrive in the US late this year, but that significant numbers of them wouldn't be delivered until early 2014.

So somehow late 2013 to early 2014 has been moved to 2nd quarter of 2014. It's only a delay of a few months but it has people wondering what was the cause of the delay. To add to the mystery is the fact that the European launch seems to remain on schedule and is still set for November of this year.

There are a couple possible reasons that I can imagine:

1) BMW is having some last minute manufacturing issues so they will need longer than expected to ramp up to the volume they'll need for the US launch. Everything about the production process for the i3 is different than a conventional car so it wouldn't be surprising to find that they are discovering some manufacturing snafus that will need a little extra time to iron out. This happens with conventional cars so one would imagine BMW will certainly experience issues refining the assembly line for the i3.

2) The range extender isn't ready. BMW expects that as much as 80% of the US i3 orders will have the range extender option. What if it's not ready yet, and will take a few months longer? It's conceivable that they begin sales in Europe without the range extender option available and add it a few months later, right before the car launches in the US. A long shot, but possible. If the range extender is available for order at the European launch then this theory is proven wrong.

3) BMW has experienced a higher than expected interest in reservations in Europe, and won't be able to have an adequate supply for the European launch and still begin US deliveries only two months later. Perhaps they will need a couple of months to get the Leipzig plant up to full capacity and satisfy the initial European demand.

4) There really is no delay. Since BMW really never announced an official release date and the only reference ever made was from the Automotive News story where they interviewed Willisch. If you read the article (link above) you see the part where they talk about when the cars will start arriving in the US they aren't quoting Willisch, so it is possible they just used bad information and Willisch actually didn't tell them the car would launch then. Perhaps Willisch was referring to when i3s with range extenders would arrive in the US to be used for training and marketing purposes and the plan all along was to start selling them a couple of months later.

If I had to put money on it, I'd probably go with dealing with manufacturing issues combined with heavier than planned demand in Europe. Perhaps we'll get some clarity on this at the i3 formal introduction on Monday.

I'll have the press conference streaming live here on this site, so tune in at 8:00am this Monday, July 29th.

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BMW i3 REx: A Hobbled Horse or a Galloping Thoroughbred?

The BMW i3 range extender engine which is made by Taiwanese manufacturer Kymco for BMW.

There is still a lot of unknown information about the i3. BMW has been extremely conservative about what information they offer. While they have stated it will have an electric range of 80 to 100 miles and cost about the same as a nicely equipped 3-Series, the two biggest questions still remain: What will the EPA range rating be and exactly what will it cost? However right behind those two questions for many people is: What will the performance be when the range extender is in use?

The range extender engine will be a 650cc Kymco engine borrowed from the BMW C650 GT scooter. It will be highly optimized to lower noise & vibration and will only put out 35hp, compared to its 65hp when used for the scooter. The gas tank will be a miniscule 2.8 gallons and BMW has stated it will extend the range of the car about another 90 miles, effectively doubling the cars range. However many journalists are wondering will that added 90 miles be an ultimate driving experience or the ultimate disappointment?

The REx will fit nicely next to the e-motor

The Chevy Volt is the closest vehicle to compare the REX i3 to, even though it's not exactly an apples to apples comparison. The Volt has a 1.4 liter gas engine that puts out 80hp to power the generator, more than double the output of the i3's gas range extender engine. However the Volt weighs 1,000lbs more than the i3 will and isn't nearly as efficient so it would naturally need a larger, more powerful range extender engine. The Volt's robust range extender allows it to drive uninhibited while the range extender is maintaining the car's charge. The million dollar question is will the same be said about the i3? That answer looks like it will be no, it won't. BMW's Product and Technology Communications spokesman, Dave Buchko said of the range extender: "The i3 range extender is meant to enable the car to go a little further than the pure BEV on those rare occasions when driver needs to go a little further. It is not intended for daily use. We've said that the REx [range extender] will double the effective range of 80-100 miles. I have not seen anything to suggest that it would not be capable of doing so.". Then BMW North American CEO Ludwig Willisch said while the range extender is running: "The car will not be as agile," Willisch said. "It will not have full power when it runs on the combination."

I'm not exactly sure what "not intended for daily use" means though. That sounds like you'll break if you use it every day and that's obviously not going to be the case. Will the cars performance be so inhibited while in REx mode you wouldn't want to drive it that way every day? I find it difficult to believe BMW would add the range extender if it was so weak it offered terrible performance while in use. Willisch must have confidence it will perform admirably in REx mode though because he predicted at least 80% of US i3 buyers will order it with the range extender. I've also heard it described by some as a "limp home mode" by some(not BMW people) and I also don't believe that is accurate either.

An i3 with the range extender was caught at a gas station refueling in this spy photo. The gas filler door will be located on the front passenger quarter panel and the charge port will be on the rear passenger side quarter panel, just above the wheel.

A big determination of how it will perform in range extender mode is how much of the battery the car holds as a buffer when the range extender turns on. Lets say the i3 normally only uses 90% of its 22kWh capacity. That means the all electric i3 will utilize about 19.8kWh's. If the REx i3 holds another 10% as a buffer to help with short bursts of needed energy than the range extender will turn on after using only 17.6kWh's of the 22kWh pack. This will allow the car to perform better when in REx mode but it will also mean the car will drive about 10 miles less on electricity. The larger the buffer the better the REx performance but the shorter all electric range. I hope BMW allows you to turn off the REx for those times when you could make your destination on pure electricity if you only need a few miles after the REx would have turned on. That way you could utilize the full ~19.8kWh that a BEV i3 has available, without reserving the buffer needed for the REx since you don't intend to need it. Of course the percentages of the battery pack utilization I'm using here are just guesses on my part, but I expect them to be pretty close to reality.

My guess is it will be pretty much in between the hobbled horse and "ultimate driving EV" when the range extender is in use. I think it will drive fine on flat terrain, and can probably even drive along at 70mph in those circumstances. However introduce an extended incline or times when you need to go 75 or more to keep up with traffic and the car could quickly find itself gasping for enough energy to maintain its motion. It definitely won't be a "It'll get you home but you'll have to crawl along at 30mph" but lets just say you'd lose if you try to autocross in REx mode. Then again, if BMW does reserve a fair amount of the battery back as a buffer, it could perform very well for the first 20 miles or so, before the stored energy gets to a minimum and the REx is working at maximum output to sustain the charge level.

The bottom line is if you really just want the security of knowing you'll never have to call a tow truck to get home, then the REx will be worth its weight in gold for you. I've been there on the side of the road a couple times in the past four years falling short of my destination so I know it will be a valuable asset for those circumstances. However if you plan to use the range extender to drive hundreds of highway miles to make a far off destination, then I'm guessing this isn't the right EV for you. Horses for courses. Hopefully, we'll get the answers to these questions and all the technical specifications of the i3 soon. It launches in Europe in the fall so the wait is nearly over.

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BMW i3 Cost a Hot Topic

There are lot of unknowns with the i3. BMW has been very careful to only leak out small details, much to the chagrin of journalists and enthusiasts interested in the car. However the most sought after piece of information that everyone wants to know is how much will it cost?

It seemed like we finally got some clarity on that a couple days ago when Diana Kurylko of the Automotive News wrote a story that claimed the i3's would be "priced at about $40,000". The story was of course picked up by many other outlets and suddenly everywhere you looked on the internet you saw "BMW i3 to cost $40,000". I was skeptical of his from the start. While I have no official inside information on what the price will be I do not believe it will be as low as $40,000. I'm thinking $43,000 to $45,000 as the base price, with options like the range extender and premium electronics packages pushing the price up to and even over $50,000.

Willisch handing me the keys to my ActiveE

So after re-reading Kurylko's piece a few times, it became clear to me that she came up with the $40,000 figure herself, not from anyone BMW. During her interview with BMW NA CEO Ludwig Willisch, he told her the i3 would be priced "roughly the same as a well-equipped 3-series sedan" and Kurylko added the $40,000 herself, assuming that is what a well-equipped 3-series sedan costs. Only she was wrong. A well equipped 3-series costs closer to $45,000 depending on what you consider well equipped. Realizing this I posted my doubts on the BMW i3 Facebook group page and opened a thread for discussion. John Voelcker of High Gear Media, one of the leading journalists in the US covering electric vehicles, was the first to comment and I could see he was interested in getting the facts straight. He later posted that he contacted BMW spokesman Dave Buchko to follow up on the Automotive News piece and Buchko cleared things up a bit, reiterating that Willisch only said the i3 would be comparably priced to a well-equipped 3-series and didn't offer any specific price, and that such a car costs more than $40,000 He actually said a well equipped 3-series "falls more in the $45,000 to $50,000 range." Voelckers entire follow up story in GreenCarReports can be seen here.

So the hope of a $40,000 base i3 price was short lived. Personally I never thought the price would be that low. I believe it will be in the $43,000 to $45,000 range before any tax incentives so the final cost on a base i3 without options should be under $40,000 after the $7,500 federal tax rebate for those that qualify. Add a nice array of options and the range extender and you're probably talking $52,000 -$53,000, or about $45,000 after the federal tax credit. Final pricing probably won't be announced till after the i3's official debut at the Frankfurt Auto Show in September.

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